U.S. Community Solar Surpasses 10 GW Milestone
A recent analysis from Wood Mackenzie and the Coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA) says that the U.S. community solar industry accomplished a historic milestone in late 2025 when it officially surpassed 10 GWDC of total national installations.
The market shrank by 25% in 2025 because established markets like New York and Maine slowed considerably. However, national installed capacity is predicted to expand by 12% in 2026. In 2025, the market put in 1,435 MW.
Market Outlook Through 2030
Caitlin Connelly, the report’s primary author and senior analyst, stated,
“Overall, we expect national installed community solar capacity to shrink by an average of 5% each year through 2030 in existing state-level programs.”
“The segment’s growth in the near future is supported by a strong project development pipeline that now exceeds 8 GW, with 29% of it said to be under construction.” Developers are dealing with a complicated federal regulatory environment and long interconnection queue backlogs to make sure that their present pipelines are developed as quickly as possible to fulfill the ITC’s start-of-construction and placed-in-service requirements.
The paper says that the market shrank in 2025 mostly because there weren’t enough installations in New York and Maine. This year, the expansion of capacity in the Illinois and Mid-Atlantic regions will lead to national yearly growth.
New State Markets Drive Future Growth
The long-term expansion of conventional community solar depends more and more on the creation of new state markets. Developers have already set up solid pre-development pipelines for prospective programs in areas including Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Connelly added,
“So far in 2026, there are signs that the value proposition of community solar is gaining new traction across several states.” “The passage of laws in these markets could add more than 1.5 GW by 2030; however, the removal of the ITC in 2030 will make it harder to plan new programs and set deadlines.”
Expansion Into Community-Scale Resources
Developers are expanding their business models beyond typical community solar programs that are allowed by law. This is because there is a rising demand for “community-scale” resources, which the research defines as solar resources up to 20 MW in size. Community solar developers are mostly focusing on Ohio and Pennsylvania for this kind of project. This is partly because the area needs additional power to keep up with demand that is expanding quickly.
Connelly added,
“Utilities are starting to put ‘community-scale’ resources at the top of their long-term planning. These are usually smaller utility-scale projects that are directly connected to the distribution grid.”
“These resources can be put to use faster than bigger utility-scale projects, and when combined with storage, they can make the grid more flexible and reliable.”
“Going over 10 GW is a big deal for community solar and shows how strong this industry is.”
Jeff Cramer, president and CEO of CCSA, stated,
“We’ve helped hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses save money on their bills, even though federal policy changes have made things very uncertain.”
“But this is only the beginning of accomplishing this goal. The growth of mid-scale, front-of-the-meter solar and storage into new markets shows that our business is changing and growing in ways that will benefit consumers and the grid for many years to come. The pipeline is strong, and the states that are stepping up to make new programs show that community and distributed clean energy are still one of the best ways to make electricity cheap and available to everyone.
Subscriber Acquisition Costs and Market Consolidation
The average cost of acquiring new subscribers fell by 12% across all consumer categories in 2024. Developers who want to make more money from their projects after the ITC removal are now focusing on lowering the cost of acquiring new subscribers. Wood Mackenzie thinks that average expenses will keep going down slowly until 2030, even if there are problems with the market in certain states. This is because more people are using consolidated billing and digital marketing technologies. LMI customers are still the most costly to get, at $100 per kW.
The subscription management industry is likewise quickly becoming more unified. Perch Energy bought the platform Solstice in February 2026, after Perch had already merged with Arcadia. As of the end of 2025, four big subscription management platforms and vertically integrated developers will be in charge of 55% of all operational community solar power.
Market Scenarios and Projections
By the end of 2025, all of the community solar projects will add up to 10.1 GW. Wood Mackenzie has come up with high-case and low-case scenarios to deal with market uncertainties:
High case: A 16% increase in the base case five-year projection thanks to good improvements in state policy and better connectivity reform, which adds around 1.2 GW.
Low case: A 14% drop because the rules for qualifying for tax credits are too complicated and the state doesn’t do anything to help, lowering the forecast by around 1 GW.
